Burundi’s political crisis is not solved and may yet jeopardise the country’s future stability. The current political impasse stems from the crisis within the ruling CNDD-FDD leadership and President Pierre Nkurunziza’s refusal to conclude a power-sharing agreement with the leaders of opposition parties. To avoid any violence in the run-up to the 2010 elections, it is essential that political consultations are carried out to choose the members of the Independent National Electoral Commission and begin revisions of the electoral code.

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has turned Kyrgyzstan in effect into a one-party state, but its surface calm could soon be shattered if he does not deal with its real problems of corruption and economic crisis before winter sets in. A further deterioration in living conditions could spark serious anger among a public already worn down by power cuts, the steady increase in fuel prices and the memory of the previous grim winter. If anger turns to violence, it risks being brutal, destructive and xenophobic - and the remnants of the discredited opposition may not be able to channel demonstrations into a more controllable form.